THE BCS IS DEAD
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/campusrivalry/post/2010/06/report-colorado-to-announce-move-to-pac-10-on-friday/1
Colorado has officially left the Big 12 for the Pac-10. This means Nebraska's bid to leave is very much legit and most of the Big 12 south will vacate to go to the Pac-10.
If the Big 12 dissolves, and the Big Ten and Pac-10 become "super" conferences, the BCS will become very meaningless, if not now, then within a few years at least.
My fear is the BCS may undergo a new moniker, such as its previous incarnations as the Bowl Alliance and Bowl Coalition, or whatever it used to be.
With these super conferences, and the huge wave of public support in a playoff system though, I think this is at least the path to something constructive.
-- Knuttel
Showing posts with label Big Ten 2010. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Big Ten 2010. Show all posts
6.10.2010
6.09.2010
Big Ten continued
So I saw that during a break in Jeopardy, so I had to post it, but alas, I had no time to expound and elaborate. Isn't that what this website is about?
So anyways.
Let's assume that this is it for Big Ten expansion, that no more schools will come forward and join them.
-- An East/West division system is likely. The East will probably be Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, and Purdue. The West will probably be Illinois, Wisconsin, Northwester, Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska.
-- The Pac-10 will likely move in and take a good chunk of the southern schools of the Big12. This will likely spell the end of the Big 12. Given numbers, this means the Big Ten will become the new Big 12.
-- The SEC may also open up to and bid for some of the Texas schools, sensing a conference collapse, and possibly seeking to reunite Arkansas with some of its former conference mates.
-- If no conferences take any further Big 12 schools, the Big 12 itself may seek to re-shift and get some other school to fill the 12th spot, and maintain that championship game. Possible candidates for this include TCU, or possibly even some former Southwestern Conference members. Either the new school will join the Northern division, or Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, or Texas Tech will. I see the former option more likely, from 15 years of playing in these divisions and building up rivalries.
If the Big Ten is not done expanding, this is almost positive evidence that they are also adding Missouri. Missouri seemed like a sure shot to join the Big Ten, and if Nebraska is jumping ship, then Missouri will likely follow. This also means that there probably will be another east coast team to balance out everything geographically. Rutgers, Syracuse, and UConn will open the conference to the New York market, and Pitt and West Virginia have geography and historic rivalries with Penn State. They may also contemplate another 2 teams on top of that, making a 16 team super group. The other two teams could really be any I've listed, plus Notre Dame, and maybe even Texas.
If the Big Ten and Pac-10 turn into huge 16 team conferences, the BCS will basically become useless. With the BCS useless, Notre Dame will have to join a conference in order to partake in this playoff system and have the chance at a national title.
If the Big Ten and Pac-10 turn into huge 16 team conferences, the SEC and ACC will likely follow suit, absorbing whatever schools are left over from the Big 12 and Big East.
The Texas legislature may be the biggest obstacle here. What power they have over these schools' conference alignment is unclear exactly to me, but they seem determined to keep these 4 schools in the Big 12 together. I guess because Rice, TCU, and SMU are private, they have no control over where they go, but Houston is not, and has not been with these Big 12 schools since 1996. Obviously Texas and Texas A&M are the two big targets here, being the two with the biggest football histories. Texas Tech has had some very exciting recent years, both in record and in play, so they are a target, however the coach responsible for these changes has been fired. Baylor seems like the odd one out. They're a team on the rise, so they may be able to compete in the Pac-10 or SEC. Not getting into one of these, however, basically amounts to relegation, which means less revenue, dramatically.
Notice all of the ifs in this post. This is all one writer's crazy speculation.
Orangebloods seems to be keeping up with this. Considering how theyre affiliated with Texas, I wonder if there's some ulterior motive.
http://texas.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1092612
-- Knuttel
So anyways.
Let's assume that this is it for Big Ten expansion, that no more schools will come forward and join them.
-- An East/West division system is likely. The East will probably be Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, and Purdue. The West will probably be Illinois, Wisconsin, Northwester, Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska.
-- The Pac-10 will likely move in and take a good chunk of the southern schools of the Big12. This will likely spell the end of the Big 12. Given numbers, this means the Big Ten will become the new Big 12.
-- The SEC may also open up to and bid for some of the Texas schools, sensing a conference collapse, and possibly seeking to reunite Arkansas with some of its former conference mates.
-- If no conferences take any further Big 12 schools, the Big 12 itself may seek to re-shift and get some other school to fill the 12th spot, and maintain that championship game. Possible candidates for this include TCU, or possibly even some former Southwestern Conference members. Either the new school will join the Northern division, or Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, or Texas Tech will. I see the former option more likely, from 15 years of playing in these divisions and building up rivalries.
If the Big Ten is not done expanding, this is almost positive evidence that they are also adding Missouri. Missouri seemed like a sure shot to join the Big Ten, and if Nebraska is jumping ship, then Missouri will likely follow. This also means that there probably will be another east coast team to balance out everything geographically. Rutgers, Syracuse, and UConn will open the conference to the New York market, and Pitt and West Virginia have geography and historic rivalries with Penn State. They may also contemplate another 2 teams on top of that, making a 16 team super group. The other two teams could really be any I've listed, plus Notre Dame, and maybe even Texas.
If the Big Ten and Pac-10 turn into huge 16 team conferences, the BCS will basically become useless. With the BCS useless, Notre Dame will have to join a conference in order to partake in this playoff system and have the chance at a national title.
If the Big Ten and Pac-10 turn into huge 16 team conferences, the SEC and ACC will likely follow suit, absorbing whatever schools are left over from the Big 12 and Big East.
The Texas legislature may be the biggest obstacle here. What power they have over these schools' conference alignment is unclear exactly to me, but they seem determined to keep these 4 schools in the Big 12 together. I guess because Rice, TCU, and SMU are private, they have no control over where they go, but Houston is not, and has not been with these Big 12 schools since 1996. Obviously Texas and Texas A&M are the two big targets here, being the two with the biggest football histories. Texas Tech has had some very exciting recent years, both in record and in play, so they are a target, however the coach responsible for these changes has been fired. Baylor seems like the odd one out. They're a team on the rise, so they may be able to compete in the Pac-10 or SEC. Not getting into one of these, however, basically amounts to relegation, which means less revenue, dramatically.
Notice all of the ifs in this post. This is all one writer's crazy speculation.
Orangebloods seems to be keeping up with this. Considering how theyre affiliated with Texas, I wonder if there's some ulterior motive.
http://texas.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1092612
-- Knuttel
Big Ten Expansion
It appears the Big 10 is now the Big 12, and the Big 12 now the Big 11, that is until everyone else leaves
http://www.news-herald.com/articles/2010/06/09/sports/doc4c0f8f017a8e2219807698.txt
http://www.news-herald.com/articles/2010/06/09/sports/doc4c0f8f017a8e2219807698.txt
6.08.2010
Conference Expansion: The end of the bcs?
If one were to listen to ESPN, one would assume all is peachy keen in bcs land, that this is the perfect system to last for eons, the constant force (which changes formulas almost every year) by which we decide who our College Football National Champion is.
Oddly enough, the conferences are making it look as if the bcs's days are numbered.
You see, the conferences are the foundation of the bcs. It is the reason there are bcs conferences and non-bcs conferences. To have a perfectly stable Big Ten, ACC, Big East, SEC, Big 12, Pac-10, and Notre Dame is what makes the bcs work as it does. (It is true that about a decade ago, the ACC poached some of the Big East's best schools, but the Big East responded by poaching some of the rising non-bcs talent in the eastern half of the country, and focusing more on becoming a basketball conference).
As we speak, the conferences are out in their meetings, in their own little bubbles, plotting and planning on expansion.
Namely the Big Ten and the Pac-10.
http://texas.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1090747
It's been common knowledge that the Big Ten has been looking to expand, though they haven't really shown their hand at how or how large. Already, despite their name, they have 11 schools (one can see it in the logo), though current NCAA rules state a conference needs 12 schools to have a conference championship game -- otherwise the conference gives the title away by conference standing, which is outrageous, Penn State has technically been co-champions for both of their Big Ten championships, both with Ohio State, a team that they also beat in both of those seasons.
Alas, I digress. Common sense seems to dictate Notre Dame is a target, seeing as how it almost joined the Big Ten in recent history, has rivalries with many Big Ten teams, and lies in the heart of Big Ten territory (Indiana, on the outskirts of Chicagoland). Simply adding Notre Dame would make it 12, and enable a conference championship game. But Notre Dame likely won't go for this, citing tradition (bs) and playing service academies out of respect (padding the schedule, they don't play airforce though, and have FINALLY started losing to Navy). So the Big Ten will likely target other schools. They can either go east, west, or arguably both.
East-ways they can give Penn State some east-coast company by taking a Big East school -- rumored candidates include Rutgers, Pitt (which would re-enable the fabled PSU/Pitt rivalry), Syracuse, and West Virginia.
West-ways they'll likely target some Big 12 schools, and this is where it gets really interesting. Missouri is all but looking for an excuse to jump to the Big Ten. They already have a rivalry with Illinois in basically every sport, and don't like the Big 12's revenue sharing model, which directs most of the funds to the University of Texas. They can also target Iowa State (to complete the Iowa pair), Nebraska, and maybe even Colorado or Kansas (getting Kansas with Missouri would keep that rivalry intact). They also are rumored to target the University of Texas itself.
This is where the Pac-10 comes in. They are looking to expand eastward, get into some new markets. The link I provided earlier (which isn't as much hearsay as one may believe, I've seen similar info on other sites) shows the Pac-10's plan to annex UT, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado -- making it a 16 team conference. The six invited Big 12 schools would likely form a division with Arizona and Arizona State, making an inland division and coastal division.
IF something like this were to go down PRECISELY like this, it would effectively end the Big 12 as a conference (though to be fair it's only like 15 years old anyway). The northern teams head east to the Big 10, the southern teams head west to the Pac-10.
The problem is, not every Big 12 school is on board with this.
Texas has no incentive to leave the Big 12, so long as it stays intact. It gets the most money from the revenue sharing model and is still a member of a bcs conference.
Texas A&M may not want to play so many games on the west coast. Already school officials have grumbled about past games on the west coast, and students being forced to return very late. If they were to join the Pac-10, this would be a very regular occurrence. Also, while they are a chief rival of Texas, they may want to get out of their shadow. Alternate plans show this school heading to the SEC if the Big 12 crumbles.
Which brings me to my next thing -- Oklahoma and Oklahoma State may want to also head to the SEC to get out of the Big 12. It would reunite them with fellow former Southwest conference member Arkansas, and would move them away from Texas, who as was previously stated, takes a substantial piece of revenue.
The legislature of the State of Texas may also mess this scenario up, as they may want to keep the 4 Texas schools of the Big 12 together (notice I have never mentioned Baylor until just now). It may also affect the other Texas schools of division 1 football -- Houston, Rice, SMU, TCU, Northern Texas, and UTEP (the first 4 of those former members of the Southwest football conference).
I wonder if the Pac-10 is also looking at the non-bcs risers of late. All of them fit in the geographic region that is either typically covered by the Pac-10, or is targeted by them now. Boise State and Utah being in the former category, TCU in the latter.
So all of this, in the end, focuses on the State of Texas. Why? The same reason Texas gets most of the money in the Big 12's revenue sharing agreement now -- Television.
The Big Ten Network has been a large success for the conference (after a bumpy start getting it broadcast) and has shown an effective way for a conference to monopolize and control the television coverage, and therefore incoming revenue, of the conferences sports, while also giving the conference a way to show it's other athletics which wouldn't usually get televised (soccer, swimming, track, etc). Notre Dame would hypothetically open the conference up to a national audience, though I don't think Notre Dame has the same national pull it had in, say, 1948. Which brings us to Texas. Texas is the second most populous state in the nation (California, the first, is under a pretty tight Pac-10 grip), and thus the target of many of these conferences. Plus it is in the middle of the country, so it's not like the Big East is asking for USC, it's the conference moving either east-ward or west-ward.
The large market is also the reason some of the Big East schools are targets of the Big Ten -- getting Rutgers, Syracuse, or UConn would open the conference to either the state or city of New York. Pitt and West Virginia are both geographically closer to the Big Ten and have ties with Penn State.
Anyways -- what does this mean for the bcs?
Well, let's assume the Big Ten expands to 16 schools (what they are is kind of irrelevant, and will just be a large puzzle making excercise for me), the Pac-10 also wants to expand to 16-ish schools so it can compete. The SEC and ACC pick up the scraps of the Big 12 and Big East and also create 16 team conferences (again, I don't really care if the numbers are off by a little). BOOM. 4 Conference champions. 4 team playoff for the national champion -- just like that. Yes, this would likely exclude the non-bcs conferences, in the grand scheme of things the big conferences don't care about the little ones -- Joepa I feel usually speaks out against the conferences out of his own frustration of being continuously left out while Penn State was independent until the 90s (that's over 20 years of putting up with that shit, I don't care if he's 80 something, you have to remember that). Maybe it will force the non-bcs conferences to consolidate into their own bigger conferences -- this would be much easier if the current powers don't jump to higher grounds -- and they can enter into the playoff process. BOOM. 8 team playoff for the national champion. The problem of working around the current Conference format to slide in some sort of national championship is no more.
Expanding the conferences not only makes the "selection" process that much simpler, but it also destroys the historic bowl ties, that nostalgia loosely holds in place. Where does the Cotton Bowl go if the State of Texas is split up? Will People want to see a Rutgers/Colorado Rose Bowl? Sure, they'll probably still exist, but they'll probably have a better chance of surviving as consolation games, and nothing else (though to be fair, when there's like 40 bowl games, they're pretty much all consolation games).
The bcs is complaining about how long and painful a playoff system would be, yet the NCAA is considering adding even more teams to their annual basketball tournament. It's already at 65, which would be about half of Division 1-fbs football.
People must hate that tournament if they have to add even more schools to get people to watch it.
-- Knuttel
Oddly enough, the conferences are making it look as if the bcs's days are numbered.
You see, the conferences are the foundation of the bcs. It is the reason there are bcs conferences and non-bcs conferences. To have a perfectly stable Big Ten, ACC, Big East, SEC, Big 12, Pac-10, and Notre Dame is what makes the bcs work as it does. (It is true that about a decade ago, the ACC poached some of the Big East's best schools, but the Big East responded by poaching some of the rising non-bcs talent in the eastern half of the country, and focusing more on becoming a basketball conference).
As we speak, the conferences are out in their meetings, in their own little bubbles, plotting and planning on expansion.
Namely the Big Ten and the Pac-10.
http://texas.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1090747
It's been common knowledge that the Big Ten has been looking to expand, though they haven't really shown their hand at how or how large. Already, despite their name, they have 11 schools (one can see it in the logo), though current NCAA rules state a conference needs 12 schools to have a conference championship game -- otherwise the conference gives the title away by conference standing, which is outrageous, Penn State has technically been co-champions for both of their Big Ten championships, both with Ohio State, a team that they also beat in both of those seasons.
Alas, I digress. Common sense seems to dictate Notre Dame is a target, seeing as how it almost joined the Big Ten in recent history, has rivalries with many Big Ten teams, and lies in the heart of Big Ten territory (Indiana, on the outskirts of Chicagoland). Simply adding Notre Dame would make it 12, and enable a conference championship game. But Notre Dame likely won't go for this, citing tradition (bs) and playing service academies out of respect (padding the schedule, they don't play airforce though, and have FINALLY started losing to Navy). So the Big Ten will likely target other schools. They can either go east, west, or arguably both.
East-ways they can give Penn State some east-coast company by taking a Big East school -- rumored candidates include Rutgers, Pitt (which would re-enable the fabled PSU/Pitt rivalry), Syracuse, and West Virginia.
West-ways they'll likely target some Big 12 schools, and this is where it gets really interesting. Missouri is all but looking for an excuse to jump to the Big Ten. They already have a rivalry with Illinois in basically every sport, and don't like the Big 12's revenue sharing model, which directs most of the funds to the University of Texas. They can also target Iowa State (to complete the Iowa pair), Nebraska, and maybe even Colorado or Kansas (getting Kansas with Missouri would keep that rivalry intact). They also are rumored to target the University of Texas itself.
This is where the Pac-10 comes in. They are looking to expand eastward, get into some new markets. The link I provided earlier (which isn't as much hearsay as one may believe, I've seen similar info on other sites) shows the Pac-10's plan to annex UT, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado -- making it a 16 team conference. The six invited Big 12 schools would likely form a division with Arizona and Arizona State, making an inland division and coastal division.
IF something like this were to go down PRECISELY like this, it would effectively end the Big 12 as a conference (though to be fair it's only like 15 years old anyway). The northern teams head east to the Big 10, the southern teams head west to the Pac-10.
The problem is, not every Big 12 school is on board with this.
Texas has no incentive to leave the Big 12, so long as it stays intact. It gets the most money from the revenue sharing model and is still a member of a bcs conference.
Texas A&M may not want to play so many games on the west coast. Already school officials have grumbled about past games on the west coast, and students being forced to return very late. If they were to join the Pac-10, this would be a very regular occurrence. Also, while they are a chief rival of Texas, they may want to get out of their shadow. Alternate plans show this school heading to the SEC if the Big 12 crumbles.
Which brings me to my next thing -- Oklahoma and Oklahoma State may want to also head to the SEC to get out of the Big 12. It would reunite them with fellow former Southwest conference member Arkansas, and would move them away from Texas, who as was previously stated, takes a substantial piece of revenue.
The legislature of the State of Texas may also mess this scenario up, as they may want to keep the 4 Texas schools of the Big 12 together (notice I have never mentioned Baylor until just now). It may also affect the other Texas schools of division 1 football -- Houston, Rice, SMU, TCU, Northern Texas, and UTEP (the first 4 of those former members of the Southwest football conference).
I wonder if the Pac-10 is also looking at the non-bcs risers of late. All of them fit in the geographic region that is either typically covered by the Pac-10, or is targeted by them now. Boise State and Utah being in the former category, TCU in the latter.
So all of this, in the end, focuses on the State of Texas. Why? The same reason Texas gets most of the money in the Big 12's revenue sharing agreement now -- Television.
The Big Ten Network has been a large success for the conference (after a bumpy start getting it broadcast) and has shown an effective way for a conference to monopolize and control the television coverage, and therefore incoming revenue, of the conferences sports, while also giving the conference a way to show it's other athletics which wouldn't usually get televised (soccer, swimming, track, etc). Notre Dame would hypothetically open the conference up to a national audience, though I don't think Notre Dame has the same national pull it had in, say, 1948. Which brings us to Texas. Texas is the second most populous state in the nation (California, the first, is under a pretty tight Pac-10 grip), and thus the target of many of these conferences. Plus it is in the middle of the country, so it's not like the Big East is asking for USC, it's the conference moving either east-ward or west-ward.
The large market is also the reason some of the Big East schools are targets of the Big Ten -- getting Rutgers, Syracuse, or UConn would open the conference to either the state or city of New York. Pitt and West Virginia are both geographically closer to the Big Ten and have ties with Penn State.
Anyways -- what does this mean for the bcs?
Well, let's assume the Big Ten expands to 16 schools (what they are is kind of irrelevant, and will just be a large puzzle making excercise for me), the Pac-10 also wants to expand to 16-ish schools so it can compete. The SEC and ACC pick up the scraps of the Big 12 and Big East and also create 16 team conferences (again, I don't really care if the numbers are off by a little). BOOM. 4 Conference champions. 4 team playoff for the national champion -- just like that. Yes, this would likely exclude the non-bcs conferences, in the grand scheme of things the big conferences don't care about the little ones -- Joepa I feel usually speaks out against the conferences out of his own frustration of being continuously left out while Penn State was independent until the 90s (that's over 20 years of putting up with that shit, I don't care if he's 80 something, you have to remember that). Maybe it will force the non-bcs conferences to consolidate into their own bigger conferences -- this would be much easier if the current powers don't jump to higher grounds -- and they can enter into the playoff process. BOOM. 8 team playoff for the national champion. The problem of working around the current Conference format to slide in some sort of national championship is no more.
Expanding the conferences not only makes the "selection" process that much simpler, but it also destroys the historic bowl ties, that nostalgia loosely holds in place. Where does the Cotton Bowl go if the State of Texas is split up? Will People want to see a Rutgers/Colorado Rose Bowl? Sure, they'll probably still exist, but they'll probably have a better chance of surviving as consolation games, and nothing else (though to be fair, when there's like 40 bowl games, they're pretty much all consolation games).
The bcs is complaining about how long and painful a playoff system would be, yet the NCAA is considering adding even more teams to their annual basketball tournament. It's already at 65, which would be about half of Division 1-fbs football.
People must hate that tournament if they have to add even more schools to get people to watch it.
-- Knuttel
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