The Knuttel Returns

So obviously I took a long break from updating this blog which no one reads.

Why leave?  Why return?

Short answer: who cares.  Long answer: there isn't going to be one.

So let's just straight into business.

Issue number one which has prompted me to return to this thing -- The Libyan rebellion has reached the city of Tripoli, the seat of Ghadafi's power.

Top Ten Myths about the Libya War | Informed Comment

There's some good reads.

This revolution is really one of the most remarkable things to happen in recent history.  Despite all odds, the rebels seem to be on the verge of gaining control of the country.  The rebels are largely untrained civilians, and NATO air support only goes so far.  While I don't doubt the existence of special ops units (American, British, and/or French) in Libya, a revolution like this requires many many people on the ground.

I frankly can't think of any reason that one would support Ghadafi without an ulterior motive in this year, 2011.  Even his western nations tour and UN appearance not too long ago seems just strange.  The man has always trampled civil liberties (the only liberties any one can ever be guaranteed) and has long since betrayed the ideals he used to spur his coup.  Claiming NATO simply wants a share of its oil makes no sense because NATO already had access to Libyan oil (in agreements where Libya would be paid for said oil), and spurring a revolution against the seated government can only jeopardize the oil in Libya -- physically, as oil is a very combustible substance (anyone remember Saddam torching oil wells in his retreat in 1991) and economically, as uncertainty about access to oil can only drive prices up (and up they have only been since NATO has helped).

Maybe the rebels will take Tripoli and end Ghadafi's regime, maybe they'll get pushed back, but I don't see Ghadafi recovering from this.  Even if he wins this battle of Tripoli, all he really has left is artillery.  A lot of his military has defected and shelling cities like the whole thing is a military target can only lose him supporters (and it seems that was his strategy in Misrata).

Ah, Post-post-colonialism, it truly is a wild ride.

I anticipate the end of Ghadafi happening on Maury -- "You are NOT the leader" (cue music)

-- Knuttel