Iran: Transformers of 2009 (more than meets the eye)

"Something is rotten in the state of Denmark"
[Hamlet, I.4.100]

Here are the facts as they exist thus far

1. The official results (as validated by Ayatollah Khomeni) show Mahmoud Ahmadinejad winning re-election with a popular vote total nearing 65%.
2. Ahmadinejad is the head of the more radical Iranian party.
3. The more moderate candidate, the one pretty much every western publication said would eke out a victory, only garnered about 35% of the popular vote.
4. The President has little to no power in the Iranian government. He is mostly just a figurehead, with some say in foreign policy.
5. Ayatollah Khomeni and his elite council run the country in a theocratic government.
6. An Ayatollah has ruled over Iran since the Shah was deposed in 1979 for being too friendly to American interests.
7. Iranian-American relations have always been complicated.
8. Political parties do not have control over their constituents, and certainly do not control those with similar goals who are not constituents.
9. Glenn Beck is a retard (please stop confusing your idiocy with one of the greatest pieces of revolutionary writing of the 18th century. Thomas Paine IS rolling in his grave).
10. Riots are occurring everywhere across Iran in protest of the Presidential results, especially in the capital and largest city -- Tehran.
11. Ayatollah Khomeni issued a proclamation calling Ahmadinejad the winner, end of story, all protesters will be dealt with violently, and the more moderate party is to blame for their actions.
12. Seriously Glenn Beck, just stop.

What to make of all this?

The Ayatollah still officially runs things, but is feeling like he is losing his grip on the people. As their political interests become more secular, a theocracy becomes less appealing. The president doesn't really do much in Iranian affairs, but having someone who is not Ahmadinejad in office would be a small victory for the Iranian people (think the government of Kerensky in 1917 Russia).

American intervention in this matter must be very delicate, if at all, due to the longstanding complications in relations between the two nations. If America shows too much support for the moderate candidate, he may be viewed as a western lackey. Iranians must find democracy for themselves, but they may need some help along the way.

The riots won't stop until the Ayatollah makes some sort of concessions (whether it be in power or politically, by having a recount or even re-election). The moderate party has little to actually do with the riots. Because the riots are so widespread and affecting many demographics, they do not currently run the risk of doing what the yippies did in the late '60s, who ended up alienating an entire country from anything politically associated with hippies. (Tried taking over 1968 Democratic national convention in Chicago, but were never invited. Instead they just decided to antagonize the police all across Chicago. Trying to show the nation how right they were through police brutality, they just looked like a bunch of dicks. Funny part is they got a candidate they wanted, and he still lost -- to Dick Nixon.)

Glen Beck is a force that needs to be stopped and cancelled.

This situation still has alot of settling to do before we know what the true Iranian situation is going to be.

-- Knuttel